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Stock-to-Flow model still predicts $288,000 Bitcoin in the next three years

Photo of: Joseph Stone
by Joseph Stone

A strong advocate of the stock-to-flow model, PlanB assures that Bitcoin can still expect to reach $288K over the next 3 years.

A proponent of the stock-to-flow forecasting model, the analyst known by the pseudonym PlanB is adamant. Despite the collapse of the Bitcoin price in May and its stagnation below $40,000, he persists.

According to him, his previous forecast remains realistic. It was already surprising in 2020. This is probably even more the case now because of the very strong slowdown in investment. In recent weeks the outflow of capital from BTC products has been at record levels.

For PlanB, this does not change anything. The analyst considers that the growth trajectory drawn by the S2F model still applies. However, this curve would bring the price of Bitcoin up to $288,000 within three years.

Last November, the forecasting expert even stated that by December 2021, the value of BTC would be between $100,000 and $288,000. However, he was not alone in making such an estimate.

By the end of 2021, the expert Bobby Lee expected in March a value between $ 200K and $ 250K. The blockchain hedge fund Pantera Capital estimated that BTC would be halfway there by August.

For its CEO and co-investment director, Dan Morehead, Bitcoin was doing better than expected at the time. “Bitcoin is now ahead of our April 2020 forecast schedule – to reach $115K this summer,” he wrote.

Dan Morehead, like PlanB, relies on the stock-to-flow model. However, those forecasts predated the May cryptocurrency market crash. And they did not take into account one unpredictable variable: Elon Musk.

For PlanB, recent events will not weigh on the trajectory of BTC, however.

“I would be really surprised if bitcoin doesn’t hit the black line of the S2FX model during this phase,” he says, with a chart to support it.

The analyst must concede, however, that there is a serious deviation in price from the S2F model. But this is not a first, he reminds. Such deviations were observed in 2013 and 2017, ATH years for Bitcoin.

Investors may also agree with the argument developed by Dan Morehead, for whom the current low prices are an excellent opportunity to buy crypto-assets. When it comes to BTC, the whales are hoarding the chips for that matter.

“For new investors, it’s best to buy when the market is trending lower. That’s the case today. The market has only been as ‘cheap’ or cheaper compared to the trend for 20.3% of the last 11 years,” the Pantera Capital executive is quoted as saying.